CONSUL Research Staff

The coronavirus is an earth shaking event which is likely to permanently reshape the world. Global society has been shaken to its roots by the coronavirus pandemic. The 14th-century Black Death caused millions of deaths across Europe and Asia and led to the break-up of empires. It also encouraged wider maritime exploration that led to European colonialism.

The following are some of the new directions civilization will take in coming years.

(1) The existing strains of COVID-19 threatening the world may continue to ravage societies for up to 12-18 months as the search for a vaccine continues.

(2) Many countries have used contact-tracing technologies and have been able to control the menace through strict quarantines, but poor and densely populated countries remain unprepared and vulnerable.

(3) As such, the aggregate death toll may ultimately rise to nearly one million or more.

(4) Supply chains and markets have been disrupted and the world economy as a whole has weakened.

(5) Global unemployment has reached Depression-era levels, and the current relief packages are not enough to relieve the pain. Global level efforts will be needed to aid the new unemployed.

(6) Spiraling debt is a matter of immense concern for poor countries which cannot survive without wholesale write-off.

(7) Petro-states will be in serious trouble with oil prices hitting bottom. Petro-states and developing countries have flocked to the IMF to access its emergency lending facility and have also drawn down their USD reserves to buttress their financing and stave off capital flight.

(8) Gulf states may need to loosen their U.S. dollar pegs and linkages.

(9) With U.S.-China trade trending sharply downward and China attempting to re-price oil into renminbi, a fragmentation of the global monetary order is a distinct possibility.

(10) Global economic fragmentation and diminished international lifelines will lead to people fleeing countries in serious economic trouble.

(11) Observers expect the migrant crisis from Central America into Mexico and the Middle East into Europe to surge again.

(12) When the present restrictions on cross-border mobility lift, millions of other people will seek to escape regions with inadequate healthcare in favor of those with better medical facilities.

(13) At present, most countries that offer universal medical care are in Europe. Those with skills and “immunity passports” may well gain entry into wealthier countries which will open their doors to migrants to contribute to a consumption rebound and fill labor shortages.

(14) In coming days many countries will resort to stockpiling or “food nationalism” as Russia has done in limiting grain exports and Vietnam restricting rice exports.

(15) Multilateral institutions will be upgraded to better cope with future shocks.

(16) WHO, IMF and the World Bank will play a greater role in world affairs.

(17) There will be a revival of regional organizations. Regionalization will be the new globalization.

(18) There will be greater investment in biotechnology and healthcare, as healthcare is now defined and accepted as a social good worldwide.

(19) The education sector will be restructured with more stress on digital delivery of lectures and tutorials.

(20) Digitization of financial services, which had already mushroomed prior to the pandemic, will gather pace. Cash will be used less and less.

(21) Combating climate change will rise to the top of world agenda.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More